BCS Bowl Projections
The TCU Horned Frogs and the Boise State
Broncos should both be very, very pleased about Notre Dame's loss to Navy.
Removing the Irish from the BCS discussion puts both non-BCS conference teams in a position to play in a BCS bowl in January.
Only one is guaranteed a spot (as long as one finishes in the top 12) but with the way things are setting up, both appear to be on solid ground.
Iowa losing was another huge help for these two teams, because it is essentially a lock that the Big Ten will only have one team earn a BCS bid. If Iowa loses to the Buckeyes in Columbus on Saturday, both it and Penn State have two losses and won't be chosen. If Iowa wins, Ohio State will have three losses leaving only Iowa to be selected.
The Big 12 is only going to get one team, unless the unthinkable happens and Texas is upset in the Big 12 title game. Not gonna happen. Oklahoma State is a bit of a wild card, but it is highly, highly unlikely considering they'll probably lose to Oklahoma.
Even if the Pokes win, I give it less than a five percent chance of happening.
We know that the ACC and the Big East are only getting one team if things play out as they are expected, which gives us four bids accounted for. Four of the ten.
The SEC is getting two, which leaves the Pac-10. If (and this is a huge if) the USC Trojans win out, you have to believe that they will be selected to play in the Fiesta Bowl, if Oregon (or someone else) wins the Pac-10.
USC is banged up, and it's not getting better, and they are very inconsistent on offense and not very smart on defense. Going 3-0 to end the year will be a tough task. If they don't, this leaves the door open to a team like Arizona or Stanford. Maybe even Pittsburgh/Cincinnati if both teams end with one loss.
Miami should still be considered a dark horse, if USC earns a third loss and Cincinnati beats Pittsburgh, leaving the Panthers with two losses.
Still, that leaves two spots open in whatever scenario plays out.
Basically, all TCU and Boise State need to do is not take a dump in their shorts and lose to a team they shouldn't lose to. The Broncos have nobody left on the schedule that has a chance of beating them and TCU just needs to get past Utah at home on Saturday.
Now which one of these BCS busters would play for the national title if two of Florida, Alabama or Texas ended up with a loss?
We'll just cross that bridge when we get there.
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I think you are right both non BCS teams are going to get in this year and that will be good for college football. USC is still in line to make it but I don't think they are going to win out. Too many injuries and too much inconsistency. This is definitely opening the door for a team like ARizona, or Oklahoma state to make a run, things are going to get real interesting for the race for the last BCS spot.
Well I normally never comment on blogs but I agree. Thanks for shedding some light on this. I am going to check out the rest of this blog now!