Final BCS Breakdown
A week from this time we will know for sure who is playing where, and after Oklahoma State and Georgia Tech's losses, we pretty much do now.
There are now only two major scenarios that will impact the at-large teams, Texas winning the Big 12 game or Nebraska winning it. The loser of the ACC game won't receive a BCS bid and the loser of the SEC game will, so that's all there is to it.
Texas winning scenario:
BCS - Florida/Alabama v Texas
Rose - Ohio St. v Oregon/Oregon St.
Fiesta - Iowa v Boise St.
Orange - Georgia Tech/Clemson v TCU
Sugar - Florida/Alabama v Cincinnati/Pittsburgh
Right now it seems the Fiesta is leaning Iowa over Penn St. with their replacement pick and they'll take Boise with their at-large pick after the Orange takes TCU first. Nobody wants to touch Cincy as they hardly brought any fans down to the Orange Bowl last year so the Sugar will take them last. A Pitt victory over Cincy may complicate things as the Fiesta may want to take Penn St. to set up a possible Penn St. v Pitt match up. Let's wait to see if it happens first.
Nebraska winning scenario:
BCS - Florida/Alabama v Cincinnati
Rose - Ohio St. v Oregon/Oregon St.
Fiesta - Nebraska v Penn St.
Orange - Texas v Georgia Tech/Clemson
Sugar - Florida/Alabama v TCU
With the computers loving Cincy so much and the margin between them and TCU so small in the BCS standings, a win over Pitt should be enough to push them over TCU next week. The Orange would snap up lucrative Texas in a heartbeat with their first pick. I don't see how the Fiesta could pass up Penn St. v Nebraska, but Iowa is still an option. Boise is on the outside looking in under this unlikely scenario.
While Virginia Tech is eligible, I haven't heard any kind of buzz in the way of them getting any kind of BCS love (which is great news in my opinion).
Texas winning scenario:
BCS - Florida/Alabama v Texas
Rose - Ohio St. v Oregon/Oregon St.
Fiesta - Iowa v Boise St.
Orange - Georgia Tech/Clemson v TCU
Sugar - Florida/Alabama v Cincinnati/Pittsburgh
Right now it seems the Fiesta is leaning Iowa over Penn St. with their replacement pick and they'll take Boise with their at-large pick after the Orange takes TCU first. Nobody wants to touch Cincy as they hardly brought any fans down to the Orange Bowl last year so the Sugar will take them last. A Pitt victory over Cincy may complicate things as the Fiesta may want to take Penn St. to set up a possible Penn St. v Pitt match up. Let's wait to see if it happens first.
Nebraska winning scenario:
BCS - Florida/Alabama v Cincinnati
Rose - Ohio St. v Oregon/Oregon St.
Fiesta - Nebraska v Penn St.
Orange - Texas v Georgia Tech/Clemson
Sugar - Florida/Alabama v TCU
With the computers loving Cincy so much and the margin between them and TCU so small in the BCS standings, a win over Pitt should be enough to push them over TCU next week. The Orange would snap up lucrative Texas in a heartbeat with their first pick. I don't see how the Fiesta could pass up Penn St. v Nebraska, but Iowa is still an option. Boise is on the outside looking in under this unlikely scenario.
While Virginia Tech is eligible, I haven't heard any kind of buzz in the way of them getting any kind of BCS love (which is great news in my opinion).
0 TrackBacks
Listed below are links to blogs that reference this entry: Final BCS Breakdown.
TrackBack URL for this entry: http://www.blogsbyfans.com/cgi-bin/blog-mt/mt-tb.cgi/17599.
I would love to see Iowa against Boise, I hope that comes true in that scenario. I think TCU pounds anybody they play aside from Texas and the SEC schools. Ben you really know your bowl stuff.