Gaming out the BCS Selection Process
What follows is a list of teams that will or may end up getting one of the 10 BCS spots this season and at the very bottom my predictions.
The most important thing to remember is that after the BCS Championship game takes the top two teams and the bowls take the conference champion that they are tied in with. After that all that matters to the bowls selecting at-large teams is who can bring in the most $$ aka fans.
The most important thing to remember is that after the BCS Championship game takes the top two teams and the bowls take the conference champion that they are tied in with. After that all that matters to the bowls selecting at-large teams is who can bring in the most $$ aka fans.
Here are the ground rules, you probably know them so this will be elementary...
Here are the conference tie ins:
SEC - Sugar
ACC - Orange
Big 12 - Fiesta
Pac 10 - Rose
Big 10 - Rose
Big East - No tie in
After the bowls who have their conference tie in taken from them by the BCS Championship game (this means Sugar/Fiesta) this is the order that the bowls pick teams:
1. Orange
2. Fiesta
3. Sugar
Any team that has at least 9 wins and is ranked in the top 14 of the BCS standings is eligible for an at-large BCS bid.
Only two teams from each conference can go to a BCS bowl.
Now onto the breakdown.
1. Florida - With a win over Florida St. this weekend they will be assured of a BCS bid. They will either go to the BCS Championship game by beating Alabama in the SEC Championship game or will go to the Sugar Bowl with a loss to Alabama.
2. Alabama - With a win over Auburn this weekend they will be assured of a BCS bid. They will either go to the BCS Championship game by beating Florida in the SEC Championship game or will go to the Sugar Bowl with a loss to Florida.
3. Texas - With a win over Texas A&M this Thursday they will be assured of a BCS bid. They will either go to the Championship game with a win over Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship game or they will receive an at-large bid with a loss to Nebraska
4. TCU - With a win over one-win New Mexico this weekend they will be assured of a BCS at-large bid by being the top non-BCS conference team finishing in the top 12 of the BCS standings.
5. Cincinnati - With a win over Pitt in two weeks they will receive a BCS bid as champions of the Big East. With a win over Illinois this Friday and a loss to Pitt in two weeks they will be under consideration for a BCS at-large bid.
6. Boise St. - If they can win their final two games and finish the season undefeated they will be under consideration for a BCS at-large bid.
7. Georgia Tech - With a win over Clemson in the ACC championship game in two weeks they will play in the Orange Bowl as ACC champions. With a win over South Carolina this weekend and a loss in the ACC game to Clemson they will be under consideration for a BCS at-large bid.
8. Oregon - A win at home against rival Oregon St. will see the Ducks in the Rose Bowl.
9. Pittsburgh - If they can beat Cincy at home in two weeks they will get a BCS spot as Big East champions.
10. Ohio St. - They've already finished their season are locked into the Rose Bowl as Big 10 champs.
11. Iowa - They've finished their season at 10-2 and are under consideration for a BCS at-large bid.
12. Oklahoma St. - A win over rival Oklahoma in Norman will mean the Cowboys finish 10-2 and under consideration for an at-large bid.
13. Penn St. - They've finished at 10-2 with a loss to Iowa, but that has very little bearing on whether or not they or Iowa will ultimately be chosen for an at-large spot. They are under consideration and word on the street is if the Orange Bowl can get them, they will.
14. Virginia Tech - Probably the longest of long shots, but if they beat rival Virginia this weekend they'll finish with the required 9 wins and in the BCS top 14 therefore making them eligible for an at-large spot.
16. Oregon St. - A win over Oregon in the Civil War will put them in the Rose Bowl against Ohio St.
18. Clemson - A win over Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship game will put them in the Orange Bowl.
NR. Nebraska - A win over Texas in the Big 12 Championship game gets them a surprise spot in the Fiesta Bowl and creates BCS chaos.
Assuming everything goes as planned here is our pool of at-large teams for the four available at-large spots. The Fiesta has two spots, the Sugar and Orange have one. In practical terms there are only two at-large spots as the Big East champion gets one and an undefeated top 12 TCU gets the other.
Boise St. - it will be harder to leave an undefeated top 7 team out with two at-large spots available, but nobody is required to take them and we know they won't bring the money other schools will.
Iowa - While Penn St. has been to the Fiesta Bowl recently Iowa has not which is a possible draw here.
Oklahoma St. - If they can win out it's likely, but not a certainty that the Fiesta Bowl would slot the Cowboys in as a replacement for their Big 12 team.
Penn St. - It's hard to imagine the Orange or Fiesta bowls passing on a 10-2 Penn St. team with the fans they can bring to either Florida or Arizona respectively.
Virginia Tech - OK St. losing to Oklahoma is the only way VT has a shot (and it would be the Sugar Bowl taking them with their last pick). If Boise St. and VT are left for the Sugar Bowl to take (especially after Utah was forced on them last year) who do you think they want?
In Conclusion...
There are obviously a number of scenarios that can end up playing out but I believe the major determining factor is the outcome of the Oklahoma St. v Oklahoma game in Norman. This is an extremely simplified prediction of a complicated process, but I predict that it boils down to this.
1. If Oklahoma St. wins, they are in the Fiesta, leaving the Orange Bowl to take Penn St. with their first pick. Iowa and Boise St. are on the outside looking in.
2. If Oklahoma St. loses, the Fiesta Bowl takes one of Penn St. or Iowa (lets say Iowa because of the never been to the Fiesta Bowl factor). With two Big 10 teams already selected, Penn St. is out and the remaining at-large spot is left to either Boise St. or Virginia Tech. With the last pick the Sugar Bowl takes 3-loss Virginia Tech screwing Boise St. again.
Here are the conference tie ins:
SEC - Sugar
ACC - Orange
Big 12 - Fiesta
Pac 10 - Rose
Big 10 - Rose
Big East - No tie in
After the bowls who have their conference tie in taken from them by the BCS Championship game (this means Sugar/Fiesta) this is the order that the bowls pick teams:
1. Orange
2. Fiesta
3. Sugar
Any team that has at least 9 wins and is ranked in the top 14 of the BCS standings is eligible for an at-large BCS bid.
Only two teams from each conference can go to a BCS bowl.
Now onto the breakdown.
1. Florida - With a win over Florida St. this weekend they will be assured of a BCS bid. They will either go to the BCS Championship game by beating Alabama in the SEC Championship game or will go to the Sugar Bowl with a loss to Alabama.
2. Alabama - With a win over Auburn this weekend they will be assured of a BCS bid. They will either go to the BCS Championship game by beating Florida in the SEC Championship game or will go to the Sugar Bowl with a loss to Florida.
3. Texas - With a win over Texas A&M this Thursday they will be assured of a BCS bid. They will either go to the Championship game with a win over Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship game or they will receive an at-large bid with a loss to Nebraska
4. TCU - With a win over one-win New Mexico this weekend they will be assured of a BCS at-large bid by being the top non-BCS conference team finishing in the top 12 of the BCS standings.
5. Cincinnati - With a win over Pitt in two weeks they will receive a BCS bid as champions of the Big East. With a win over Illinois this Friday and a loss to Pitt in two weeks they will be under consideration for a BCS at-large bid.
6. Boise St. - If they can win their final two games and finish the season undefeated they will be under consideration for a BCS at-large bid.
7. Georgia Tech - With a win over Clemson in the ACC championship game in two weeks they will play in the Orange Bowl as ACC champions. With a win over South Carolina this weekend and a loss in the ACC game to Clemson they will be under consideration for a BCS at-large bid.
8. Oregon - A win at home against rival Oregon St. will see the Ducks in the Rose Bowl.
9. Pittsburgh - If they can beat Cincy at home in two weeks they will get a BCS spot as Big East champions.
10. Ohio St. - They've already finished their season are locked into the Rose Bowl as Big 10 champs.
11. Iowa - They've finished their season at 10-2 and are under consideration for a BCS at-large bid.
12. Oklahoma St. - A win over rival Oklahoma in Norman will mean the Cowboys finish 10-2 and under consideration for an at-large bid.
13. Penn St. - They've finished at 10-2 with a loss to Iowa, but that has very little bearing on whether or not they or Iowa will ultimately be chosen for an at-large spot. They are under consideration and word on the street is if the Orange Bowl can get them, they will.
14. Virginia Tech - Probably the longest of long shots, but if they beat rival Virginia this weekend they'll finish with the required 9 wins and in the BCS top 14 therefore making them eligible for an at-large spot.
16. Oregon St. - A win over Oregon in the Civil War will put them in the Rose Bowl against Ohio St.
18. Clemson - A win over Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship game will put them in the Orange Bowl.
NR. Nebraska - A win over Texas in the Big 12 Championship game gets them a surprise spot in the Fiesta Bowl and creates BCS chaos.
Assuming everything goes as planned here is our pool of at-large teams for the four available at-large spots. The Fiesta has two spots, the Sugar and Orange have one. In practical terms there are only two at-large spots as the Big East champion gets one and an undefeated top 12 TCU gets the other.
Boise St. - it will be harder to leave an undefeated top 7 team out with two at-large spots available, but nobody is required to take them and we know they won't bring the money other schools will.
Iowa - While Penn St. has been to the Fiesta Bowl recently Iowa has not which is a possible draw here.
Oklahoma St. - If they can win out it's likely, but not a certainty that the Fiesta Bowl would slot the Cowboys in as a replacement for their Big 12 team.
Penn St. - It's hard to imagine the Orange or Fiesta bowls passing on a 10-2 Penn St. team with the fans they can bring to either Florida or Arizona respectively.
Virginia Tech - OK St. losing to Oklahoma is the only way VT has a shot (and it would be the Sugar Bowl taking them with their last pick). If Boise St. and VT are left for the Sugar Bowl to take (especially after Utah was forced on them last year) who do you think they want?
In Conclusion...
There are obviously a number of scenarios that can end up playing out but I believe the major determining factor is the outcome of the Oklahoma St. v Oklahoma game in Norman. This is an extremely simplified prediction of a complicated process, but I predict that it boils down to this.
1. If Oklahoma St. wins, they are in the Fiesta, leaving the Orange Bowl to take Penn St. with their first pick. Iowa and Boise St. are on the outside looking in.
2. If Oklahoma St. loses, the Fiesta Bowl takes one of Penn St. or Iowa (lets say Iowa because of the never been to the Fiesta Bowl factor). With two Big 10 teams already selected, Penn St. is out and the remaining at-large spot is left to either Boise St. or Virginia Tech. With the last pick the Sugar Bowl takes 3-loss Virginia Tech screwing Boise St. again.
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Wow way to break it down, this is good stuff. You really think Boise State could get screwed by Penn State or Virginia Tech? Would Boise state have any type of action they could do like file a greivance or something? That would be crazy.
You really broke it down well here and I think yo uare right about Okie state kinda being the team that could swoop in they have just been hanging around. A Pittsburgh win over Cincy would really muck things up as well.
I hope VT doesn't go, very undeserving and iowa deserve it more than PSU does.
Thanks for the compliment steve-o, it's appreciated.
I'm 100% with you. VT doesn't deserve it at all. I mean look at North Carolina. They would also be 9-3 and they beat VT yet they aren't in the conversation, its ridiculous. Iowa with their win over PSU should go and obviously Boise is just beating the teams on their schedule and doesn't deserve to get screwed yet again.
I just hope the bowls do the right thing, but I know we can't count on them to do that. So I'm pulling for Oklahoma this week because if they win, at least Iowa and Boise will have a shot.