Week Four TV Guide
Thu 4.30 ESPN Mississippi v South Carolina (+4) - This game reminds me
of Cal v Oregon. Both Cal and Ole Miss are non-traditional top 6 teams
going on the road to open their conference schedule against decent
teams. There could be quite a shake up at the top again this week. Gamecocks QB Stephen Garcia has improved. He had quite a showing
against Georgia two weeks ago and did the job against Florida Atlantic
last week. If he can turn in another halfway decent performance here,
even though the Gamecocks probably aren't good enough to win, it will
go a long way towards getting them back to competing with the elite in
the SEC. Ole Miss hasn't proven a thing yet, and this will be their
2009 debut to the American public. With the kind of hype they are
getting they better win by more than four points, but since I haven't
seen them play yet I'm not putting any money on that.
9.00 ESPN Michigan St. v Wisconsin (-3) - Should be an evenly matched game. A couple of inconsistent teams going at it to determine who is going to the Champs Sports Bowl and the Motor City Bowl.
9.00 ESPN2 Indiana v Michigan (-20.5) - The Wolverines are on their way to a Rich Rodriguez Michigan-career high fourth win against an Indiana team that will be happy to win one game in Big 10 play this year.
12.30 ABC Illinois v Ohio St. (-14) - The least interesting of the 12.30 slate. Illinois is way below expectations. And while Ohio St. could easily be 1-2 right now, they could also just as easily be 3-0. I was very impressed by the Buckeyes against USC and they should not have much of a problem outside of the traditional big games against Penn St. and Michigan.
12.30 ABC Miami v Virginia Tech (+3) - How often is VT an underdog at home? I could look up the answer to that question, but I think its safe to say not often. I don't think its anti-Miami bias that is making me feel the Miami love is happening a little too quickly. I do think they win this game though. Tyrod Taylor continues to struggle and how often do you say that about a guy who throws a game winning TD in the dying seconds? Lots of respect to Miami for playing four ranked teams in their first four games, even though three happen to be in conference, that's just bad luck. I wonder if anyone could go through Florida St, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma and come out 4-0? I've grown quite tired of Virginia Tech football of late. Its become bad running game, followed up Tyrod Taylor just running around seemingly afraid to make a decision to pass or run so he basically does neither.
12.30 ABC Cal v Oregon (+5.5) - My favorite game of the day. I created a rule last week that Oregon gets a seven point head start for any game taking place at Autzen. Amusingly enough they beat Utah by a touchdown so the rule stands. I'm still not sold on Cal. Anyone who watched the second and especially third quarter of the Minnesota game will probably agree. Kevin Riley is the definition of Jekyll and Hyde. He followed up a few passes ten feet over his intended receivers with a perfect 50 yard pass into his receiver's stride. No more words need be used to describe Jahvid Best, he speaks for himself. In retrospect it looks like Best was a little banged up and that's why Tedford didn't ride him like he probably should have. Tedford would have us believe that Best and Shane Vereen are equal in talent. I'm not making that up, he said that. I hope he doesn't believe it or Cal is not going to win this game. I'm taking the points I'm getting with Oregon at home, but I'm not calling an upset. The promise of a solid game from Kevin Riley and Jerimiah Masoli's wholly unimpressive performance last week against the Utes may be able to keep Cal in the top 6.
3.00 ESPN2 Florida v Kentucky (+21.5) - Another chance to watch Florida play a weak SEC foe. I didn't catch much of the Tennessee game, but it never felt like the Vols were in it and Florida was just toying with them. Not that they were taking it easy, but it was clear there was no sense of urgency. I don't think that's a good precedent for Urban Meyer to set, so I'll be looking for a little more intensity out of the Gators in this game or I worry about USC-syndrome.
5.00 ABC Iowa v Penn St. (-10) - Iowa is still Iowa and they have Ricky Stanzi making poor decisions at the QB spot. Hard to imagine Penn St. slipping up again to this team, especially considering this is Penn State's first game of the season, so they are well rested. The conventional wisdom on Penn St. is they haven't impressed on the ground thus far. That's what I'll be watching for here.
5.00 ESPN Notre Dame v Purdue (+7) - If Notre Dame was favored by something like 5 points at Ann Arbor what does it say about them that they are only favored by a touchdown at West Lafayette? I don't think the answer is that people are higher on Purdue this season. Notre Dame should be 1-2 and because Nevada didn't live up to expectations that win counts for little. Again I see them finishing the year in the top 25, but we'll see if they can dispose of Purdue early. They should. Purdue will finish 10th in the Big 10 this season. Of course Michael Floyd is out which means Golden Tate is all by his lonesome. I think they need another receiver to step up. This was one of Notre Dame's problems last year, only one receiver they could count on and it's Golden Tate. Not exactly someone I see having an NFL future. However, Notre Dame wins this by more than a touchdown.
6.15 ESPN2 Texas Tech v Houston (-1) - Let's see what Houston is all about. There are three, maybe four BCS busting teams remaining with the demise of the Mormons last week. Consistency is the argument against putting the non-BCS conference teams into the BCS games. That argument was proven by BYU last week. While the non-BCS teams have the advantage of not playing major conference competition weak in and weak out, the disadvantage is they are judged on small sample sizes, such as this one game. Anything but a domination of the Red Raiders will probably be looked upon as a bad sign for their BCS hopes, with Texas Tech likely to finish outside the top 25 by years end. We know there will be a lot of points scored here and with no interesting late west coast games, I'll be watching.
9.00 ESPN2 Indiana v Michigan (-20.5) - The Wolverines are on their way to a Rich Rodriguez Michigan-career high fourth win against an Indiana team that will be happy to win one game in Big 10 play this year.
12.30 ABC Illinois v Ohio St. (-14) - The least interesting of the 12.30 slate. Illinois is way below expectations. And while Ohio St. could easily be 1-2 right now, they could also just as easily be 3-0. I was very impressed by the Buckeyes against USC and they should not have much of a problem outside of the traditional big games against Penn St. and Michigan.
12.30 ABC Miami v Virginia Tech (+3) - How often is VT an underdog at home? I could look up the answer to that question, but I think its safe to say not often. I don't think its anti-Miami bias that is making me feel the Miami love is happening a little too quickly. I do think they win this game though. Tyrod Taylor continues to struggle and how often do you say that about a guy who throws a game winning TD in the dying seconds? Lots of respect to Miami for playing four ranked teams in their first four games, even though three happen to be in conference, that's just bad luck. I wonder if anyone could go through Florida St, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma and come out 4-0? I've grown quite tired of Virginia Tech football of late. Its become bad running game, followed up Tyrod Taylor just running around seemingly afraid to make a decision to pass or run so he basically does neither.
12.30 ABC Cal v Oregon (+5.5) - My favorite game of the day. I created a rule last week that Oregon gets a seven point head start for any game taking place at Autzen. Amusingly enough they beat Utah by a touchdown so the rule stands. I'm still not sold on Cal. Anyone who watched the second and especially third quarter of the Minnesota game will probably agree. Kevin Riley is the definition of Jekyll and Hyde. He followed up a few passes ten feet over his intended receivers with a perfect 50 yard pass into his receiver's stride. No more words need be used to describe Jahvid Best, he speaks for himself. In retrospect it looks like Best was a little banged up and that's why Tedford didn't ride him like he probably should have. Tedford would have us believe that Best and Shane Vereen are equal in talent. I'm not making that up, he said that. I hope he doesn't believe it or Cal is not going to win this game. I'm taking the points I'm getting with Oregon at home, but I'm not calling an upset. The promise of a solid game from Kevin Riley and Jerimiah Masoli's wholly unimpressive performance last week against the Utes may be able to keep Cal in the top 6.
3.00 ESPN2 Florida v Kentucky (+21.5) - Another chance to watch Florida play a weak SEC foe. I didn't catch much of the Tennessee game, but it never felt like the Vols were in it and Florida was just toying with them. Not that they were taking it easy, but it was clear there was no sense of urgency. I don't think that's a good precedent for Urban Meyer to set, so I'll be looking for a little more intensity out of the Gators in this game or I worry about USC-syndrome.
5.00 ABC Iowa v Penn St. (-10) - Iowa is still Iowa and they have Ricky Stanzi making poor decisions at the QB spot. Hard to imagine Penn St. slipping up again to this team, especially considering this is Penn State's first game of the season, so they are well rested. The conventional wisdom on Penn St. is they haven't impressed on the ground thus far. That's what I'll be watching for here.
5.00 ESPN Notre Dame v Purdue (+7) - If Notre Dame was favored by something like 5 points at Ann Arbor what does it say about them that they are only favored by a touchdown at West Lafayette? I don't think the answer is that people are higher on Purdue this season. Notre Dame should be 1-2 and because Nevada didn't live up to expectations that win counts for little. Again I see them finishing the year in the top 25, but we'll see if they can dispose of Purdue early. They should. Purdue will finish 10th in the Big 10 this season. Of course Michael Floyd is out which means Golden Tate is all by his lonesome. I think they need another receiver to step up. This was one of Notre Dame's problems last year, only one receiver they could count on and it's Golden Tate. Not exactly someone I see having an NFL future. However, Notre Dame wins this by more than a touchdown.
6.15 ESPN2 Texas Tech v Houston (-1) - Let's see what Houston is all about. There are three, maybe four BCS busting teams remaining with the demise of the Mormons last week. Consistency is the argument against putting the non-BCS conference teams into the BCS games. That argument was proven by BYU last week. While the non-BCS teams have the advantage of not playing major conference competition weak in and weak out, the disadvantage is they are judged on small sample sizes, such as this one game. Anything but a domination of the Red Raiders will probably be looked upon as a bad sign for their BCS hopes, with Texas Tech likely to finish outside the top 25 by years end. We know there will be a lot of points scored here and with no interesting late west coast games, I'll be watching.
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not a good day of games on television...