Week Fourteen TV Guide
Well we've come to the end of this regular season feature as I'm not going to preview the Army v Navy game next week.
Thu 6.00 ESPN Oregon St. v Oregon (-10) - Much to my surprise, Sean Canfield finally had his break out year for the Beavers. His 2800 yards and 19 TDs have made Oregon St. the number 19 passing offense in the nation. For all the talk of Jacquizz Rodgers, and he has 1300 rushing yards and 19 TDs of his own, it's in the air where Oregon St. will really beat you. On the Oregon side of the ball you know the drill. It's Jeremiah Masoli and LaMichael James ripping it up. Conventional wisdom is that this will be an old fashioned Pac 10 shootout. Whichever defense can step up will win. I think the 10 point number is much too high, even in Eugene.
9.00 ABC Cincinnati v Pittsburgh (+2) - Having watched Pitt's last two nationally televised games I realized I'm not the only one to have picked on Bill Stull over the years. Apparently he is quite unpopular with the Pitt faithful, but is having his breakout season this year. On paper Pitt is the more well rounded team. They have the big running back and an effective QB. Their defense leads the nation in sacks. Cincy has the high powered passing attack but less in the way of a running threat. However, while Cincy's offense hasn't been slowed down, let alone stopped, Pitt has been involved in a few low scoring close battles. One thing to keep in mind is weather. If there is snow or rain this obviously puts Pitt in a much better position as the game would play to their strengths of running and defense. As of now the forecast is temperatures in the low 30s and possible snow.
1.00 CBS SEC Championship - Florida v Alabama (+5.5) - This spread is probably as large as it is due to Alabama's scare last week. As hyped up as this game is, I really do think Florida wins on the strength of their well rounded team. Alabama just doesn't have the play at QB that is needed to beat a team at Florida's level. I would have said that even if Ingram was coming off a strong game and was healthy. As it is, Alabama is going to rely even more on McElroy who simply can't go up against Tebow in this game and beat him. For the first half of the year I thought Alabama was the best team in the nation, but they've slipped as much as you can while remaining undefeated. Florida on the other hand has gotten it together just at the right time. I'm taking the Gators.
5.00 ESPN ACC Championship - Georgia Tech v Clemson (+1.5) - If I recall in past years this game was at 10am, but I suppose they moved it because of the defacto Big East championship game in the morning. The ACC standard bearers once again did the conference no favors last week with losses to mediocre SEC teams. If Clemson hadn't looked so weak against South Carolina I'd be thinking about the upset here, but I'm not sold. Georgia Tech just needs to make sure they don't have to come from behind, because that's when Josh Nesbitt turns into Reggie Ball, a name all Tech fans recoil in horror after hearing. Feel pretty good about the -1.5 for the Jackets.
5.00 ABC Big 12 Championship - Texas v Nebraska (+14) - Because its a big game and there is hype even I've slipped into thinking that maybe the impossible is possible. It isn't. Nebraska is better than the team that got smacked around by Texas Tech earlier in the year and they shouldn't have lost that game in Blacksburg. And they're hot now, having won five in a row. So as you can see, I am probably giving them more credit than most. That said, Texas is simply too good for this conference and they will not have any problems. As of now I think they beat the SEC rep too, but we'll leave that for later. The oddsmakers, as usual, know what's up. A two TD spread for a conference championship game? Damn right.
8.30 ESPN2 Wisconsin v Hawaii (+12.5) - Including this for a number of reasons. One is my soft spot for Wisky. Two is it is the only game on at this time so if you are a junky, you might at least have it on in the background. And finally, and most importantly, a Hawaii victory puts them in the Hawaii Bowl and probably means one less 6-6 team gets in.
9.00 ABC Cincinnati v Pittsburgh (+2) - Having watched Pitt's last two nationally televised games I realized I'm not the only one to have picked on Bill Stull over the years. Apparently he is quite unpopular with the Pitt faithful, but is having his breakout season this year. On paper Pitt is the more well rounded team. They have the big running back and an effective QB. Their defense leads the nation in sacks. Cincy has the high powered passing attack but less in the way of a running threat. However, while Cincy's offense hasn't been slowed down, let alone stopped, Pitt has been involved in a few low scoring close battles. One thing to keep in mind is weather. If there is snow or rain this obviously puts Pitt in a much better position as the game would play to their strengths of running and defense. As of now the forecast is temperatures in the low 30s and possible snow.
1.00 CBS SEC Championship - Florida v Alabama (+5.5) - This spread is probably as large as it is due to Alabama's scare last week. As hyped up as this game is, I really do think Florida wins on the strength of their well rounded team. Alabama just doesn't have the play at QB that is needed to beat a team at Florida's level. I would have said that even if Ingram was coming off a strong game and was healthy. As it is, Alabama is going to rely even more on McElroy who simply can't go up against Tebow in this game and beat him. For the first half of the year I thought Alabama was the best team in the nation, but they've slipped as much as you can while remaining undefeated. Florida on the other hand has gotten it together just at the right time. I'm taking the Gators.
5.00 ESPN ACC Championship - Georgia Tech v Clemson (+1.5) - If I recall in past years this game was at 10am, but I suppose they moved it because of the defacto Big East championship game in the morning. The ACC standard bearers once again did the conference no favors last week with losses to mediocre SEC teams. If Clemson hadn't looked so weak against South Carolina I'd be thinking about the upset here, but I'm not sold. Georgia Tech just needs to make sure they don't have to come from behind, because that's when Josh Nesbitt turns into Reggie Ball, a name all Tech fans recoil in horror after hearing. Feel pretty good about the -1.5 for the Jackets.
5.00 ABC Big 12 Championship - Texas v Nebraska (+14) - Because its a big game and there is hype even I've slipped into thinking that maybe the impossible is possible. It isn't. Nebraska is better than the team that got smacked around by Texas Tech earlier in the year and they shouldn't have lost that game in Blacksburg. And they're hot now, having won five in a row. So as you can see, I am probably giving them more credit than most. That said, Texas is simply too good for this conference and they will not have any problems. As of now I think they beat the SEC rep too, but we'll leave that for later. The oddsmakers, as usual, know what's up. A two TD spread for a conference championship game? Damn right.
8.30 ESPN2 Wisconsin v Hawaii (+12.5) - Including this for a number of reasons. One is my soft spot for Wisky. Two is it is the only game on at this time so if you are a junky, you might at least have it on in the background. And finally, and most importantly, a Hawaii victory puts them in the Hawaii Bowl and probably means one less 6-6 team gets in.
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Haha, damn right! Haha. You are right about that Texas game should be a big blowout. Not even close. Gotta say I think you are right on about these games, but I think that Oregon will score a couple of times late and beat the spread and make a close game seem like a blowout. Big games all around.
steve-o you were almost dead on. If that game has two more minutes Oregon punches another one in and wins by 11, beating the spread.
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