Week Six TV Guide
A team in the top five is going to lose this week.
Georgia v Tennessee at Knoxville didn't make the list this week, but again the odds-makers do us all a favor by making Tennessee the favorite at home against an actually good SEC team. It was a gimme last week with Auburn and it's not different this week with Georgia.
Georgia v Tennessee at Knoxville didn't make the list this week, but again the odds-makers do us all a favor by making Tennessee the favorite at home against an actually good SEC team. It was a gimme last week with Auburn and it's not different this week with Georgia.
Thu 6.00 ESPN Nebraska v Missouri (+3.5) - Finally a good Thursday night matchup and they put it at the same time as my Angels playoff game. A couple of real high powered offenses going at it. Of course the winner will have an early edge in the Big 12 North but looking at the schedule is important and Nebraska avoids Texas and Oklahoma St. while Missouri only misses Oklahoma. With this also being at home, I think Missouri needs this one more than Nebraska.
9.00 ESPN2 Purdue v Minnesota (-3.5) - Minnesota has played each of their games tough. They have a lot more talent than the Boilermakers and Purdue hasn't figured out how to win close games losing at Oregon and last week throwing a game away against Northwestern. Purdue is the kind of team that the Weber/Decker combo is enough to defeat all by themselves.
9.00 ESPN Auburn v Arkansas (+2.5) - A rare morning SEC game and a great choice by the ESPN crew. The difference with this Auburn team is that Chris Todd is doing enough alongside a running attack and a defense we knew would be effective. Arkansas is about where we thought they'd be. They are still putting it together highlighted by Ryan Mallett who has looked sharp. I really like this Auburn team against anyone not called Florida, LSU or Alabama.
12.30 ABC Oregon v UCLA (+3.5) - Kevin Craft has not been bad for UCLA, but he plays conservative and Chow runs a conservative offense when he is in, and why wouldn't they? I still think he has been the difference and that Prince would make the offense more dynamic. The UCLA defense is solid and with Masoli possibly out it really gives them a chance to keep the game low scoring and close. The Pac 10 really needs Oregon to win this game or else its Pac 1 yet again in 2009.
12.30 ABC Wisconsin v Ohio St. (-16) - Not often 5-0 teams are 16 point dogs, but I don't think anyone sees upset here. Wisky is fortunate to be undefeated sneaking by in most of their games. Meanwhile Ohio St. is chugging along and is now the favorite to go to the Rose Bowl. I still think 16 points is too high for this game.
12.30 CBS Alabama v Mississippi (+5) - The game that was supposed to decide the SEC West, but LSU and Auburn have something to say about that. Alabma is the best team I've seen all year (but that's because I haven't watched much of Florida or Texas beating nobodies). Their offense is just at a completely different level and it starts with Greg McElroy. I just don't see them losing until they see Florida in the SEC championship game.
4.15 ESPN Colorado v Texas (-32.5) - I guess I'll watch the first quarter of this until the 5.00's start.
5.00 ESPN2 Georgia Tech v Florida St. (-3) - Both of these teams haven't lived up to expectations and Florida State needs this game immensely. While Florida State's offense has been better than expected with Christian Ponder leading the ACC in passing yards, Florida State's 405 yards a game allowed doesn't bode well at all against the 37th best attack in the country.
5.00 CBS Florida v LSU (+7.5) - My gut feeling here is that Florida comes out and turns in their performance of the season and shows us that LSU is only fourth because the teams in front of them kept losing. But it can't be a blowout. That just doesn't happen to LSU at home.
5.05 ABC Michigan v Iowa (-8) - Iowa has emerged as a "gets it done" team. I still don't think they're all that great, but in the Big 10 they are a contender. Expecting a close game here so I'll take Michigan +8. A big game under the lights in Iowa City. That's funny to write.
9.00 ESPN2 Purdue v Minnesota (-3.5) - Minnesota has played each of their games tough. They have a lot more talent than the Boilermakers and Purdue hasn't figured out how to win close games losing at Oregon and last week throwing a game away against Northwestern. Purdue is the kind of team that the Weber/Decker combo is enough to defeat all by themselves.
9.00 ESPN Auburn v Arkansas (+2.5) - A rare morning SEC game and a great choice by the ESPN crew. The difference with this Auburn team is that Chris Todd is doing enough alongside a running attack and a defense we knew would be effective. Arkansas is about where we thought they'd be. They are still putting it together highlighted by Ryan Mallett who has looked sharp. I really like this Auburn team against anyone not called Florida, LSU or Alabama.
12.30 ABC Oregon v UCLA (+3.5) - Kevin Craft has not been bad for UCLA, but he plays conservative and Chow runs a conservative offense when he is in, and why wouldn't they? I still think he has been the difference and that Prince would make the offense more dynamic. The UCLA defense is solid and with Masoli possibly out it really gives them a chance to keep the game low scoring and close. The Pac 10 really needs Oregon to win this game or else its Pac 1 yet again in 2009.
12.30 ABC Wisconsin v Ohio St. (-16) - Not often 5-0 teams are 16 point dogs, but I don't think anyone sees upset here. Wisky is fortunate to be undefeated sneaking by in most of their games. Meanwhile Ohio St. is chugging along and is now the favorite to go to the Rose Bowl. I still think 16 points is too high for this game.
12.30 CBS Alabama v Mississippi (+5) - The game that was supposed to decide the SEC West, but LSU and Auburn have something to say about that. Alabma is the best team I've seen all year (but that's because I haven't watched much of Florida or Texas beating nobodies). Their offense is just at a completely different level and it starts with Greg McElroy. I just don't see them losing until they see Florida in the SEC championship game.
4.15 ESPN Colorado v Texas (-32.5) - I guess I'll watch the first quarter of this until the 5.00's start.
5.00 ESPN2 Georgia Tech v Florida St. (-3) - Both of these teams haven't lived up to expectations and Florida State needs this game immensely. While Florida State's offense has been better than expected with Christian Ponder leading the ACC in passing yards, Florida State's 405 yards a game allowed doesn't bode well at all against the 37th best attack in the country.
5.00 CBS Florida v LSU (+7.5) - My gut feeling here is that Florida comes out and turns in their performance of the season and shows us that LSU is only fourth because the teams in front of them kept losing. But it can't be a blowout. That just doesn't happen to LSU at home.
5.05 ABC Michigan v Iowa (-8) - Iowa has emerged as a "gets it done" team. I still don't think they're all that great, but in the Big 10 they are a contender. Expecting a close game here so I'll take Michigan +8. A big game under the lights in Iowa City. That's funny to write.
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I would take UCLA and Michigan against those spreads. Would not touch any other games on the list.