Week Twelve TV Guide
The third Saturday in November is bittersweet for me, with it being the last of the 9.00am Big Ten matchups that I wake up for only to inevitably fall back asleep on the couch waking up for a minute whenever something loud happens.
Recently, ending the season weeks before everyone else has been beneficial to the Big 10 because the pollsters forget how bad the Big 10 was and end up moving them up every time someone loses. Watch for Ohio State to end the year in the top 5.
I'm sparing you all a picture of Mark Mangino. You're welcome.
Recently, ending the season weeks before everyone else has been beneficial to the Big 10 because the pollsters forget how bad the Big 10 was and end up moving them up every time someone loses. Watch for Ohio State to end the year in the top 5.
I'm sparing you all a picture of Mark Mangino. You're welcome.
9.00 ABC Ohio St. v Michigan (+11.5) - A bit of the shine's off this one and on a national scale whether Iowa can finish the season 10-2 is probably more important to who will go where in the BCS picture, but its still Ohio St. Michigan which is why I'll be watching. Michigan fans know Rodriguez will get the offense on track eventually. But I know Wolverines who are questioning whether a Rich Rodriguez coached team can ever have a top notch defense.
9.00 ESPN Minnesota v Iowa (-10) - From a BCS bowl perspective ($$$) Iowa is probably the frontrunner to take what is now seen as the 10th and final BCS spot. Iowa would bring a better crowd than a Pitt or a Oklahoma St. Only Penn St. could beat them to this spot but conventional wisdom would say that a 2-loss Iowa team that beat Penn St. and currently holds a better BCS ranking would most likely be picked.
9.00 ESPN2 North Carolina v Boston College (-3.5) - Clemson owns the tiebreaker in this division so this game really only matters if the Tigers end up slipping at home to Virginia later in the day. That won't happen, but don't look now, the Tarheels are having quite the second half of the season with three wins in a row including Virginia Tech and Miami. Playing on the road hasn't seemed to bother the Tar Heels so I'm taking the hot team +3.5
11.30 NBC Connecticut v Notre Dame (-6) - The party is probably over for Charlie Weis, and that is the only storyline that will accompany Notre Dame for the rest of the year now that Clausen for Heisman talk is dead and buried. A Gator Bowl berth is likely assured even if they lose this and the Stanford game, after all they are Notre Dame and the Gator Bowl will take a 7-5 Notre Dame team in a heartbeat. If this wasn't at home, I'd think twice about an upset, but Clausen and Tate should be enough.
12.30 ABC Penn St. v Michigan St. (+3) - As has been the case in the last decade Sparty will end up right around 6 wins for bowl eligibility. Unlike past seasons, the difference is this year they got off to a slow start and picked it up as the season went on. As for Penn St., I can't think of a more mediocre boring team occupying the top 15 right now. Actually I just thought of one, LSU. I can't decide whether I want to see them matchup in the Capital One Bowl (as would happen if Iowa gets picked for a BCS game) or if I want them play other teams and show how mediocre they truly are. The fact that Michigan State is only a three point favorite in this game is probably the best evidence of Penn State's mediocre, yet highly ranked season.
12.30 ABC Virginia v Clemson (-21) - If you evaluate Clemson's season you'll see they dropped two close games to top 10 teams, and have one bad three point loss on the road against lowly Maryland. A win here will give them a rematch with Georgia Tech in the ACC title game in two weeks time and the way they have been playing, I wouldn't count them out going to a BCS bowl.
12.30 CBS LSU v Mississippi (-4) - After the elite duo in the SEC these teams fall into the second tier. We know Ole Miss is playing better these days, but if they end up beating LSU I am going to declare that the SEC is a lot more down than I thought they'd be. Jevan Snead didn't impress against Tennessee, it was all McCluster. I'm worried about Snead when McCluster won't be able to run rampant like that again. I'm going with a low scoring unimpressive game, and I'll take LSU.
4.30 VS California v Stanford (-7.5) - Normally wouldn't include FSC or VS games in the TV Guide, but I'm throwing this in because we are Bay Area guys here at CFP. After their win over UCLA (who I thought was better at the time) I said Stanford would beat Cal (who I also thought was better at the time) this year. The only thing that has changed is that taking Stanford isn't ballsy anymore. Stanford are undefeated at home and coming off two excellent wins. The story of this game will be whether Cal's D can keep up with Stanford. I saw a noticeable improvement in Cal's front seven against Arizona. That and a let down after those two huge wins from Stanford gives Cal some hope. But how can you let down in your rivalry game? It just won't happen.
4.45 ESPN2 Kentucky v Georgia (-9.5) - While we get on Joe Cox all the time here, it must be noted that Georgia has no running game to speak of, listed at 80th in the nation on the ground. They won't blow out Kentucky, but they'll win and I'm anxious to get to the Georgia Tech matchup to see where Georgia Tech stands against midlevel SEC opposition.
5.00 ABC Kansas v Texas (-27.5) - Just another walk for Texas at home against one of the disappointments of the season and now there is this Mangino distraction as well.
5.00 ABC Oregon v Arizona (+6) - The winner of this game gets in the drivers seat for the Rose Bowl with Arizona holding the tiebreaker over Oregon State. Boise St. and UCLA are the only teams to hold Oregon under 40 all season. Arizona's rush defense (what you need to stop Oregon) is ranked 20th in the nation, but it was exposed last week at Cal against backup Shane Vereen.
9.00 ESPN Minnesota v Iowa (-10) - From a BCS bowl perspective ($$$) Iowa is probably the frontrunner to take what is now seen as the 10th and final BCS spot. Iowa would bring a better crowd than a Pitt or a Oklahoma St. Only Penn St. could beat them to this spot but conventional wisdom would say that a 2-loss Iowa team that beat Penn St. and currently holds a better BCS ranking would most likely be picked.
9.00 ESPN2 North Carolina v Boston College (-3.5) - Clemson owns the tiebreaker in this division so this game really only matters if the Tigers end up slipping at home to Virginia later in the day. That won't happen, but don't look now, the Tarheels are having quite the second half of the season with three wins in a row including Virginia Tech and Miami. Playing on the road hasn't seemed to bother the Tar Heels so I'm taking the hot team +3.5
11.30 NBC Connecticut v Notre Dame (-6) - The party is probably over for Charlie Weis, and that is the only storyline that will accompany Notre Dame for the rest of the year now that Clausen for Heisman talk is dead and buried. A Gator Bowl berth is likely assured even if they lose this and the Stanford game, after all they are Notre Dame and the Gator Bowl will take a 7-5 Notre Dame team in a heartbeat. If this wasn't at home, I'd think twice about an upset, but Clausen and Tate should be enough.
12.30 ABC Penn St. v Michigan St. (+3) - As has been the case in the last decade Sparty will end up right around 6 wins for bowl eligibility. Unlike past seasons, the difference is this year they got off to a slow start and picked it up as the season went on. As for Penn St., I can't think of a more mediocre boring team occupying the top 15 right now. Actually I just thought of one, LSU. I can't decide whether I want to see them matchup in the Capital One Bowl (as would happen if Iowa gets picked for a BCS game) or if I want them play other teams and show how mediocre they truly are. The fact that Michigan State is only a three point favorite in this game is probably the best evidence of Penn State's mediocre, yet highly ranked season.
12.30 ABC Virginia v Clemson (-21) - If you evaluate Clemson's season you'll see they dropped two close games to top 10 teams, and have one bad three point loss on the road against lowly Maryland. A win here will give them a rematch with Georgia Tech in the ACC title game in two weeks time and the way they have been playing, I wouldn't count them out going to a BCS bowl.
12.30 CBS LSU v Mississippi (-4) - After the elite duo in the SEC these teams fall into the second tier. We know Ole Miss is playing better these days, but if they end up beating LSU I am going to declare that the SEC is a lot more down than I thought they'd be. Jevan Snead didn't impress against Tennessee, it was all McCluster. I'm worried about Snead when McCluster won't be able to run rampant like that again. I'm going with a low scoring unimpressive game, and I'll take LSU.
4.30 VS California v Stanford (-7.5) - Normally wouldn't include FSC or VS games in the TV Guide, but I'm throwing this in because we are Bay Area guys here at CFP. After their win over UCLA (who I thought was better at the time) I said Stanford would beat Cal (who I also thought was better at the time) this year. The only thing that has changed is that taking Stanford isn't ballsy anymore. Stanford are undefeated at home and coming off two excellent wins. The story of this game will be whether Cal's D can keep up with Stanford. I saw a noticeable improvement in Cal's front seven against Arizona. That and a let down after those two huge wins from Stanford gives Cal some hope. But how can you let down in your rivalry game? It just won't happen.
4.45 ESPN2 Kentucky v Georgia (-9.5) - While we get on Joe Cox all the time here, it must be noted that Georgia has no running game to speak of, listed at 80th in the nation on the ground. They won't blow out Kentucky, but they'll win and I'm anxious to get to the Georgia Tech matchup to see where Georgia Tech stands against midlevel SEC opposition.
5.00 ABC Kansas v Texas (-27.5) - Just another walk for Texas at home against one of the disappointments of the season and now there is this Mangino distraction as well.
5.00 ABC Oregon v Arizona (+6) - The winner of this game gets in the drivers seat for the Rose Bowl with Arizona holding the tiebreaker over Oregon State. Boise St. and UCLA are the only teams to hold Oregon under 40 all season. Arizona's rush defense (what you need to stop Oregon) is ranked 20th in the nation, but it was exposed last week at Cal against backup Shane Vereen.
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